Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:15:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa305…72af sports 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$3
politics 26% −$1
other 19% −$3
culture 9% −$1
economics 6% $0
world 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 141 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 133
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage173d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $82 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 08 $15 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $36 $0 +1%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 13 $190 −$1 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 13 $287 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 13 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 13 $87 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 13 $96 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 13 $92 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 13 $48 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 13 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 13 $138 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Feb 12 $144 $0 -0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 12 $132 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 12 $200 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 12 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 12 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $102 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 12 $94 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Feb 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 09 $103 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 09 $52 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 09 $76 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 09 $44 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 09 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 08 $150 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 08 $3 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 07 $47 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $46 1h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $41 7d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $41 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? SELL No 97¢ $15 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? BUY No 97¢ $15 18d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $40 32d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $40 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $37 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $36 43d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $41 131d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $41 131d
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? SELL No 95¢ $9 134d
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? SELL No 95¢ $40 134d
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY No 95¢ $49 134d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 134d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 134d
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $48 134d
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $48 134d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $43 134d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $44 134d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $43 134d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $43 134d
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 134d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 95¢ $12 134d
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $26 134d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $12 134d
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 134d
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 134d
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 134d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $46 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.97 · official $45.97 (match) · 439 history records