Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:03:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa307…e380 crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 546d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate76%38W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$4
politics 17% $0
other 15% $0
sports 8% −$1
tech 7% $0
economics 4% $0
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 50 -1.7% -11.0% 76% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

546d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses38 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage546d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in March? Apr 01 $35 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? Mar 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? Feb 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? Jan 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? Jan 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? Dec 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Oct 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? Oct 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? Aug 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Aug 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Jul 02 $14 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 02 $8 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2025? Apr 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Apr 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $45 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 09 $43 $0 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $11 $0 +2%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Mar 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? Mar 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will Jagmeet Singh be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Mar 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Frank Baylis be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? Mar 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $24 +$3 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 24-31? Feb 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Jan 18 $23 $0 -0%
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 29 $40 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $36 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 62d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $36 62d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 92d
Will BNB reach $900 in March? BUY No 100¢ $35 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $15 122d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $31 122d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $12 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $35 151d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? BUY No 100¢ $10 181d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? BUY No 100¢ $34 182d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $11 212d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? BUY No 100¢ $29 212d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 242d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? BUY No 100¢ $5 272d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $11 272d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $31 273d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 100¢ $24 302d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $5 333d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? BUY No 100¢ $9 334d
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? BUY No 100¢ $34 335d
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? BUY No 100¢ $14 363d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 393d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 394d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 395d
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? BUY No 100¢ $6 423d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.56 · official $49.56 (match) · 109 history records