Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:09:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa309…8427 other 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,323 (-36%) realized −$3,282 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%40W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$462now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$754
7 days−$397
14 days+$97
30 days−$2,814
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$3,019
crypto 3% −$46
finance 1% −$87
sports 1% −$25
weather 1% −$42
world 1% +$22
economics 0% −$3
politics 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -22.1% -29.5% 40% 40% -20.9%
≤30d 44 -22.4% -29.8% 39% 36% -42.2%
≤90d 44 -22.4% -29.8% 39% 36% -42.2%
all 138 -14.3% -22.4% 29% 26% -42.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 26% -42.3%
10% -29.9% 25% -47.8%
15% -36.6% 22% -52.9%
20% -42.8% 18% -57.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$49 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$462
Realized−$3,282
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses40 / 98
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)138 / 140
History coverage173d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 60¢ $500 $458 −$42 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $254 +$327 +128%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $154 −$150 -97%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $861 −$537 -62%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $404 −$393 -97%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1,509 +$357 +24%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $47 −$47 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,146 +$599 +52%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $19 +$7 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $12 +$16 +134%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 +$11 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$16 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $76 +$38 +50%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +307%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 +$11 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$10 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$11 +276%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,830 −$2,800 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $10 −$6 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $581 57m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $254 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 12¢ $154 1h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $324 39h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 7¢ $404 42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $47 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,146 9d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 10d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 11d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 11d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 11d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 11d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $28 11d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 11d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $12 12d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 12d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $19 12d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 12d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $76 12d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 12d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $28 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 12d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 13d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $56 13d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,509 14d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $462.15 · official $462.15 (match) · 260 history records