Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:23:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa30b…8a7d
crypto · 42 markets active 0h ago
7.5score
+$1,930 +21%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,071 · open −$141
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$757
Realized+$2,071
Unrealized−$141
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses25 / 15
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage5d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,607
7 days+$2,071
14 days+$2,071
30 days+$2,071
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Adrian Mannarino 26¢ 20¢ $608 $486 −$122 (-20%)
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Mannarino 46¢ 44¢ $289 $271 −$19 (-6%)
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Martin Landaluce 55¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $196 $0 −$196 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron 58¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $343 $0 −$343 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Thijs Boogaard 15¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jan-Lennard Struff 5¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $313 +$452 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $309 +$231 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $415 +$418 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $356 −$343 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $413 +$335 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $204 +$86 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $207 +$179 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $514 +$329 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $418 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $311 +$339 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$60 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$46 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $207 +$216 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $306 +$126 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $200 −$196 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $208 +$281 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $205 +$93 +46%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$24 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +90%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $202 +$131 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $105 +$208 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -94%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $203 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$13 +52%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Bublik/Kyrgios vs Paul/Seggerman Jun 11 $3 +$3 +120%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $309 +$381 +124%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $203 −$200 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $306 −$306 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $31 −$30 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $486 +$314 +65%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $294 +$206 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 08 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 66% +$1,871
sports 34% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $313 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $309 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $311 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $44 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $273 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $39 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $310 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $310 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $204 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $310 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $241 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $306 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +19.6% +8.2% 62% 62% +13.8%
≤30d 40 +19.6% +8.2% 62% 62% +13.8%
≤90d 40 +19.6% +8.2% 62% 62% +13.8%
all 40 +19.6% +8.2% 62% 62% +13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.2% 62% +13.8%
10% -2.1% 62% +2.9%
15% -11.6% 62% -7.0%
20% -20.2% 52% -16.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $756.60 · official $756.60 (match) · 107 history records