Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:54:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa313…eb44
sports · 301 markets active 2h ago
1.0score
−$3,817 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$805 · open −$3,036
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17,893
Realized−$805
Unrealized−$3,036
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses155 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$449
Open positions30
Markets (closed)271 / 301
History coverage97d
Avg bet$663
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 30 History 271 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,025
7 days−$2,664
14 days−$3,586
30 days+$4,960
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ 81¢ $5,874 $5,330 −$544 (-9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 54¢ $6,000 $3,812 −$2,188 (-36%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 85¢ $1,993 $1,827 −$165 (-8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 72¢ 80¢ $999 $1,110 +$111 (+11%)
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? No 83¢ 63¢ $1,000 $754 −$246 (-25%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 77¢ 83¢ $598 $641 +$43 (+7%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $638 $618 −$20 (-3%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 63¢ $521 $484 −$37 (-7%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 38¢ $471 $459 −$12 (-3%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 52¢ 49¢ $459 $429 −$30 (-7%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $347 $381 +$34 (+10%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $318 $312 −$7 (-2%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $319 $302 −$17 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $208 $263 +$55 (+26%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 50¢ $172 $161 −$11 (-6%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 80¢ $107 $143 +$36 (+34%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 51¢ 54¢ $125 $131 +$6 (+5%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 64¢ $107 $109 +$2 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 55¢ 55¢ $106 $105 −$1 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 64¢ $104 $103 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 47¢ 46¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 88¢ 97¢ $79 $87 +$8 (+10%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $104 $76 −$28 (-26%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Spurs 35¢ 32¢ $39 $36 −$3 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $104 +$46 +44%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 11 $3,300 −$2,997 -91%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $105 −$104 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Jun 11 $105 +$30 +29%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $39 −$2 -5%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $590 −$133 -22%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $967 +$439 +46%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $106 +$120 +114%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $6,000 +$1,059 +18%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $323 +$314 +97%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $300 +$208 +69%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $107 +$5 +4%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $353 −$230 -65%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $179 −$167 -93%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 07 $456 −$63 -14%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 07 $444 −$213 -48%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 06 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 06 $53 −$53 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $210 −$210 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $52 −$15 -29%
Marta Kostyuk vs. Mirra Andreeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $158 −$158 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 05 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 05 $430 −$328 -76%
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $52 −$11 -22%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 05 $39 −$4 -10%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $26 +$7 +26%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $105 +$7 +6%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $137 +$164 +120%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $107 −$107 -100%
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 04 $105 −$5 -5%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5) Jun 03 $53 −$53 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $320 −$320 -100%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? Jun 03 $389 −$344 -88%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $53 +$83 +158%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $105 +$95 +90%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5) Jun 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 03 $53 −$53 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 03 $105 −$105 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $13 +$13 +97%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 02 $26 +$28 +105%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5) Jun 02 $105 +$37 +35%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $1,058 +$115 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $52 +$18 +34%
Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Svitolina (+1.5) Jun 02 $53 +$25 +48%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $52 +$29 +55%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $17 +$9 +57%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-2.5) vs Svajda (+2.5) Jun 01 $26 +$26 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 72% −$1,941
sports 14% +$1,321
other 12% −$3,435
politics 2% +$223
finance 0% −$9
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $107 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $99 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 8¢ $50 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 8¢ $25 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 8¢ $52 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 8¢ $73 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 8¢ $47 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 9¢ $17 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 9¢ $25 20h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $248 28h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $8 28h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $37 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 65¢ $105 29h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 32h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $104 32h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 32h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 32h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 58¢ $233 33h
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) BUY Spurs 21¢ $13 33h
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Spurs 35¢ $40 33h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $105 33h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 2d
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 68¢ $137 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -31.7% -38.2% 30% 26% -26.0%
≤30d 145 -10.0% -18.5% 50% 46% -2.7%
≤90d 271 +6.4% -3.8% 57% 49% -9.9%
all 271 +6.4% -3.8% 57% 49% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 49% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.0% 45% -18.6%
15% -21.4% 39% -26.4%
20% -29.1% 29% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,892.82 · official $17,893.04 (match) · 1117 history records