Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:24:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A3 0xa313…e124 sports 459 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,744 (-5%) realized −$5,731 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%227W / 226L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$184est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$486
7 days+$334
14 days+$631
30 days+$492
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$6,350
other 6% −$1,648
culture 1% +$2,153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +4.3% -5.7% 59% 59% -1.3%
≤30d 77 +17.3% +6.2% 58% 58% -3.0%
≤90d 143 +10.4% -0.1% 55% 55% -5.1%
all 453 -4.0% -13.1% 50% 48% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 48% -14.1%
10% -21.5% 47% -22.3%
15% -29.0% 44% -29.8%
20% -36.0% 38% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$198 vs −$224 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$1,137
Realized−$5,731
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses227 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$184
Open positions6
Markets (closed)453 / 459
History coverage241d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 453 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 55¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 52¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 189 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $152 +$83 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $151 +$69 +46%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $152 +$154 +101%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $152 −$150 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$91 +90%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $101 +$50 +50%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$46 +46%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $101 +$74 +73%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $101 +$68 +67%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $101 +$36 +36%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $104 +$38 +37%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $101 +$74 +73%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-2 Jun 20 $101 −$17 -17%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $101 +$85 +84%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $152 +$154 +101%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $152 +$86 +57%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $152 +$142 +93%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $152 +$154 +101%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$38 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $13 +$153 +1145%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $50 +$13 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $13 +$49 +365%
O/U 4.5 Rounds Jun 15 $50 +$23 +46%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $50 +$13 +25%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $50 +$11 +21%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $25 +$17 +67%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $50 +$16 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $76 +$14 +18%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $72 −$71 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $73 −$72 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $76 −$26 -34%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $201 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $203 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $203 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $203 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $154 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 17h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $152 17h
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $152 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $101 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 72¢ $104 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 75¢ $98 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $101 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-2 SELL 65¢ $84 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-2 BUY 77¢ $101 3d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 28¢ $102 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,136.92 · official $1,136.92 (match) · 814 history records