Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:31:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa314…608c
other · 78 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Chart Positions 1 History 77 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$21
14 days+$15
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 65¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 11 $85 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $25 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $6 $0 -8%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 09 $390 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $163 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $596 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $382 +$22 +6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $156 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $428 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $53 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $1,231 −$5 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $154 −$2 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $2 $0 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $154 −$15 -10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $253 −$2 -1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $990 −$2 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $964 +$1 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 26 $3 $0 -15%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above $111,000 on June 3? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 53% and 55% of the vote in the South Ko Jun 02 $9 $0 +4%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 01 $9 $0 -0%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? May 31 $1 $0 -7%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? May 30 $7 +$2 +22%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 30 $8 +$1 +15%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 28 $12 $0 -3%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 25 $8 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 23 $9 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 21 $9 $0 +2%
Will Albania be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 16 $3 −$1 -23%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 14 $13 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 11? May 11 $2 +$2 +84%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $2 $0 -1%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $13 −$3 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 56% −$2
other 40% −$2
politics 1% +$4
crypto 1% −$3
sports 1% −$3
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 49m
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $8 49m
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $9 2h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $2 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $30 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $121 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $41 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $105 33h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $9 39h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 40h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 40h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 40h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 45h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 46h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $8 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $146 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $146 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $2 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $163 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $163 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $162 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $163 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $34 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.3% -9.2% 45% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 20 -0.6% -10.1% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 20 -0.6% -10.1% 40% 0% -9.6%
all 77 -2.2% -11.5% 47% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 4% -9.6%
10% -19.9% 1% -18.3%
15% -27.7% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.8% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.85 · official $0.00 (match) · 299 history records