Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:47:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A3 0xa315…e385 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$121 (+121%) realized +$121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +136% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +105% what you keep after slip
Net edge+105%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$51
sports 26% +$67
world 10% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+113.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +135.5% +113.1% 60% 60% +123.4%
≤30d 10 +135.5% +113.1% 60% 60% +123.4%
≤90d 10 +135.5% +113.1% 60% 60% +123.4%
all 10 +135.5% +113.1% 60% 60% +123.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +113.1% 60% +123.4%
10% +92.7% 50% +102.0%
15% +74.1% 50% +82.5%
20% +57.0% 50% +64.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +147% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +136% · $-wt +147% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$3 · ×7.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.79 per $1 lost it wins $10.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage4d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $29 +$5 +16%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$10 +220%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 +$34 +431%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 +$24 +268%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $8 +$47 +590%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 +$10 +131%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 7h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $15 9h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 71¢ $14 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 28h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 29h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 32h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 33h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 46h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 46h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 89¢ $18 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.18 · official $18.18 (match) · 23 history records