trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World Cup: Single Match Yellow Cards Record Broken? | No | 86¢ | 92¢ | $265 | $283 | +$18 (+7%) |
| Will Marcus Thuram be in France's Starting 11? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $146 | $146 | −$0 (-0%) |
| World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | $123 | $125 | +$2 (+2%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $108 | $109 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Will Kylian Mbappé be in France's Starting 11? | Yes | 98¢ | 99¢ | $48 | $49 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Will Harry Kane be in England's Starting 11? | Yes | 98¢ | 98¢ | $48 | $48 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? | Jun 14 | $200 | +$3 | +2% |
| Will Alisson be in Brazil's Starting 11? | Jun 14 | $9 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 13? | Jun 13 | $281 | +$3 | +1% |
| SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price? | Jun 13 | $100 | +$10 | +10% |
| Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? | Jun 12 | $40 | +$2 | +6% |
| Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? | Jun 12 | $28 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? | Jun 12 | $320 | +$5 | +2% |
| Will it rain in Dallas on June 9? | Jun 11 | $15 | $0 | +2% |
| Will it rain in Atlanta on June 9? | Jun 11 | $46 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will it rain in Boston on June 9? | Jun 11 | $60 | +$2 | +3% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 10? | Jun 11 | $124 | +$9 | +7% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 10? | Jun 11 | $130 | +$9 | +7% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 10 | $202 | +$4 | +2% |
| Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? | Jun 10 | $41 | $0 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 14 | +3.5% | -6.3% | 100% | 0% | -6.7% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +3.5% | -6.3% | 100% | 0% | -6.7% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +3.5% | -6.3% | 100% | 0% | -6.7% |
| all | 14 | +3.5% | -6.3% | 100% | 0% | -6.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.3% | 0% | -6.7% |
| 10% | -15.3% | 0% | -15.7% |
| 15% | -23.5% | 0% | -23.8% |
| 20% | -31.0% | 0% | -31.3% |