Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:09:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A3 0xa318…58eb crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$83 (+19%) realized +$51 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%4W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$29
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$19
other 31% −$17
sports 13% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-63.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +52.5% +38.0% 100% 100% +38.0%
≤30d 1 +52.5% +38.0% 100% 100% +38.0%
≤90d 12 -42.9% -48.4% 33% 33% -3.7%
all 17 -59.7% -63.6% 24% 24% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.6% 24% -26.2%
10% -67.0% 18% -33.3%
15% -70.2% 18% -39.7%
20% -73.1% 18% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$8 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses4 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage101d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 69¢ $83 $116 +$32 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $55 +$29 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 16 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 15 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 15 $101 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 15 $45 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$6 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 15 $25 +$25 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 15 $15 +$12 +80%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $84 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $85 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $25 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $6 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $14 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $170 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $100 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $107 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $40 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $4 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $50 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $25 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $15 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 71d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 101d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 101d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 101d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 101d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.56 · official $115.58 (match) · 29 history records