Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:01:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A3 0xa318…7ac9 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+9%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +7.0% -3.2% 67% 67% -1.1%
≤30d 3 +7.0% -3.2% 67% 67% -1.1%
≤90d 3 +7.0% -3.2% 67% 67% -1.1%
all 3 +7.0% -3.2% 67% 67% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 67% -1.1%
10% -12.5% 0% -10.6%
15% -20.9% 0% -19.2%
20% -28.7% 0% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.77 per $1 lost it wins $5.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $24 −$2 -7%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $13 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $22 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 41¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 35¢ $13 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $24 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.40 · official $55.40 (match) · 7 history records