Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:29:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa31a…d023 sports 295 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,485 (-21%) realized −$8,485 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate43%126W / 169L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$621est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$89
7 days−$254
14 days−$383
30 days−$9,747
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$10,522
crypto 11% +$744
world 2% +$37
other 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -9.2% -17.8% 76% 56% -21.5%
≤30d 295 -3.0% -12.3% 43% 31% -32.7%
≤90d 295 -3.0% -12.3% 43% 31% -32.7%
all 295 -3.0% -12.3% 43% 31% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 31% -32.7%
10% -20.7% 20% -39.1%
15% -28.3% 15% -45.0%
20% -35.4% 14% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$100 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,485
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses126 / 169
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$621
Open positions0
Markets (closed)295 / 295
History coverage47d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 295 Trades
no open positions (86 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +8%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $50 +$5 +11%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $74 +$10 +13%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 21 $124 −$121 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $25 +$2 +8%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $25 +$2 +8%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $25 +$4 +14%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $25 +$2 +10%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $62 +$6 +10%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 21 $75 +$9 +12%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $84 +$11 +13%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $35 +$5 +13%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $4 +$1 +13%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $131 +$4 +3%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 19 $22 +$2 +8%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $56 +$7 +12%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $75 +$10 +13%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5 Jun 19 $88 +$14 +16%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $92 +$16 +17%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $62 +$7 +12%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $4 +$1 +17%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $60 +$7 +12%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $205 $0 -0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $25 +$6 +23%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $25 +$4 +16%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $25 +$2 +10%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 17 $86 −$84 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $13 +$17 +124%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $25 +$5 +18%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $25 +$5 +18%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 16 $107 −$105 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $16 +$3 +16%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $25 +$6 +24%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $25 +$5 +18%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $23 −$23 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $25 +$5 +18%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 16 $89 −$87 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $25 +$3 +12%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $25 +$8 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 90¢ $50 44m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 92¢ $5 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 88¢ $74 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 17¢ $124 27h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $25 29h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 83¢ $25 29h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 92¢ $25 29h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 87¢ $25 30h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 91¢ $25 30h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 91¢ $62 31h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 89¢ $75 47h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 88¢ $35 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 88¢ $84 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 92¢ $26 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 89¢ $36 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 88¢ $4 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $134 3d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 89¢ $56 3d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 92¢ $22 4d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 88¢ $75 4d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 86¢ $88 4d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 85¢ $92 4d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 89¢ $62 5d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 85¢ $4 5d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 89¢ $60 5d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 89¢ $6 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $205 5d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 86¢ $25 6d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 81¢ $25 6d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 24¢ $86 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 728 history records