Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:12:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa31a…7ddd other 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%19W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$24
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$28
sports 23% −$12
politics 21% −$12
crypto 10% +$3
economics 7% −$7
world 5% −$5
tech 3% −$6
culture 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -1.0% -10.4% 4% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 69 -0.8% -10.3% 7% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 119 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 140 -0.6% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses19 / 121
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage104d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 96¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 21 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $153 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $55 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 21 $147 −$3 -2%
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 20 $59 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $159 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 20 $54 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 19 $54 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 19 $10 $0 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $63 −$4 -6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $448 −$1 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $45 $0 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $143 −$2 -2%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $55 −$1 -2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $60 $0 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $39 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $170 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $109 −$1 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $213 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $92 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 10 $47 −$1 -1%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 10 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $46 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 09 $51 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $527 −$1 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 07 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $155 −$1 -1%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $49 −$1 -1%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $53 −$1 -3%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 05 $65 −$2 -3%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $56 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $46 52m
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $57 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $59 9h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 10h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 17h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 17h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 22h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $47 23h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $47 29h
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 98¢ $59 29h
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $59 36h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $45 37h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $45 41h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $62 42h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $62 46h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $54 46h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $54 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 96¢ $54 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $54 2d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $37 2d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $38 2d
Will the Anaheim Ducks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 97¢ $10 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $59 2d
Will the Anaheim Ducks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 98¢ $10 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $53 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.53 · official $45.53 (match) · 506 history records