Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa31e…36d7 crypto 735 markets active 14h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$762 (+2%) realized +$762 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate59%435W / 300L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day33.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days−$168
14 days−$1,593
30 days−$339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$326
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 +2.3% -7.4% 61% 53% -12.2%
≤30d 524 -3.5% -12.7% 62% 56% -10.2%
≤90d 735 -4.9% -14.0% 59% 54% -10.1%
all 735 -4.9% -14.0% 59% 54% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 54% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 48% -18.7%
15% -29.7% 41% -26.5%
20% -36.6% 35% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$54 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$762
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses435 / 300
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)735 / 735
History coverage38d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day33.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 735 Trades
no open positions (296 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$8 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$37 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$7 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$11 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$12 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$15 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $85 −$82 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$9 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $34 +$12 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $34 +$15 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $175 +$114 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $104 −$99 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $106 −$105 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$11 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $19 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $6 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $36 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $9 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $46 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $41 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $50 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $7 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $17 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $11 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $12 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $8 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1777 history records