Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:56:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa32d…777f crypto 1220 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$262 (-1%) realized −$260 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%587W / 631L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day26.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,439now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days+$105
14 days+$105
30 days−$309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$332
crypto 30% −$64
sports 1% −$61
politics 1% +$12
other 0% +$5
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.5% -7.2% 50% 0% -7.5%
≤30d 96 -74.2% -76.6% 10% 4% -11.9%
≤90d 1218 -7.2% -16.0% 48% 41% -11.2%
all 1218 -7.2% -16.0% 48% 41% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 41% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 36% -19.7%
15% -31.4% 35% -27.5%
20% -38.1% 34% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$4,439
Realized−$260
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses587 / 631
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1218 / 1220
History coverage75d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $2,403 $2,357 −$46 (-2%)
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $2,038 $2,082 +$44 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 369 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $2,521 −$118 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 21 $2,298 +$223 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $12 +$4 +37%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $425 +$26 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $20 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 98¢ $2,403 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 91¢ $2,403 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 96¢ $2,521 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $2,521 2h
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun BUY No 99¢ $1,488 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $1,300 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $998 20d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun BUY No 93¢ $550 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 20d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $14 20d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 94¢ $405 27d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? BUY No 96¢ $20 27d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY No 62¢ $10 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $20 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 94¢ $20 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY No 71¢ $10 27d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? BUY No 69¢ $10 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $10 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL Yes 1¢ $101 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 34¢ $81 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $30 29d
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $1 29d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $1 29d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? SELL No 85¢ $2 29d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $10 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,438.65 · official $4,438.65 (match) · 2742 history records