Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:59:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa330…bd47 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,747 (+32%) realized +$2,743 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$357per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$2,739
economics 25% −$4
other 24% $0
crypto 3% +$3
tech 1% +$9
politics 0% $0
world 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.2% -4.8% 100% 0% -4.2%
≤30d 3 +6.7% -3.5% 100% 0% -2.6%
≤90d 9 -6.0% -14.9% 67% 22% +133.6%
all 22 -2.1% -11.4% 45% 18% +19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 18% +19.5%
10% -19.9% 18% +8.1%
15% -27.6% 18% -2.3%
20% -34.7% 18% -11.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +158% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$401 vs −$127 · ×3.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.17 per $1 lost it wins $3.17
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$2,743
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage161d
Avg bet$357
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 87¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 72¢ 95¢ $14 $19 +$4 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 22 $28 +$3 +9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 09 $43 +$4 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 23 $19 $0 +2%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 23 $8 −$8 -99%
Pelicans vs. Pistons Apr 01 $6 +$4 +54%
Wizards vs. Jazz Mar 26 $1,998 +$3,402 +170%
Raptors vs. Clippers Mar 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Mar 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Raptors vs. Suns Mar 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 06 $59 $0 -0%
Heat vs. 76ers Feb 27 $728 +$572 +79%
Kings vs. Mavericks Feb 26 $1,224 −$1,224 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 25 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 09 $63 −$2 -3%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Feb 07 $63 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in January? Feb 03 $63 $0 +0%
Rangers vs. Flyers Jan 26 $17 +$23 +133%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 17 $2,005 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $36 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 16 $2,007 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $10 1h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $10 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $30 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $20 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 89¢ $28 12d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $47 12d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 86¢ $17 24d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 86¢ $26 24d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? SELL No 99¢ $20 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 97¢ $19 46d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 78¢ $8 59d
Pelicans vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 65¢ $6 87d
Wizards vs. Jazz BUY Wizards 37¢ $604 88d
Wizards vs. Jazz BUY Wizards 37¢ $775 88d
Wizards vs. Jazz BUY Wizards 37¢ $5 88d
Wizards vs. Jazz BUY Wizards 37¢ $6 88d
Wizards vs. Jazz BUY Wizards 37¢ $19 88d
Wizards vs. Jazz BUY Wizards 37¢ $21 88d
Wizards vs. Jazz BUY Wizards 37¢ $2 88d
Wizards vs. Jazz BUY Wizards 37¢ $15 88d
Wizards vs. Jazz BUY Wizards 37¢ $1 88d
Wizards vs. Jazz BUY Wizards 37¢ $15 88d
Wizards vs. Jazz BUY Wizards 37¢ $29 88d
Wizards vs. Jazz BUY Wizards 37¢ $1 88d
Wizards vs. Jazz BUY Wizards 37¢ $6 88d
Wizards vs. Jazz BUY Wizards 37¢ $1 88d
Wizards vs. Jazz BUY Wizards 37¢ $1 88d
Wizards vs. Jazz BUY Wizards 37¢ $5 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.32 · official $38.32 (match) · 93 history records