Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:00:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa335…0f71 crypto 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate53%30W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$1
crypto 25% −$3
tech 11% $0
economics 10% −$9
sports 4% +$1
politics 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -0.9% -10.3% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 18 -5.8% -14.8% 44% 0% -9.6%
all 57 -6.7% -15.5% 53% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 2% -9.7%
10% -23.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -31.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$372
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses30 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)57 / 62
History coverage267d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $360 $360 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+57%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 23 $360 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $360 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $150 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $360 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $350 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 01 $13 −$1 -10%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $183 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 14 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 06 $93 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 07 $190 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 01 $193 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $97 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Feb 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Feb 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 2? Feb 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 02 $190 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $9 +$1 +10%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 22 $92 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 17 $90 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jan 17 $11 −$9 -82%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 12 $90 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 12 $1 −$1 -59%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Jan 09 $120 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 December 29-January 4? Jan 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 06 $90 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Jan 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 29 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Dec 29 $136 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Dec 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 16 $3 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 16 $126 +$1 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 03 $70 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 03 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 30 $1 $0 +6%
Warriors vs. Pelicans Nov 20 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Nov 17 $2 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $360 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $360 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $360 31h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $352 31h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $360 31h
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $201 32h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $151 32h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $150 7d
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $200 7d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $360 7d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $360 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 20d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $349 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $2 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 22d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $350 22d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $90 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 25d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $90 25d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $372.34 · official $372.34 (match) · 235 history records