Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:40:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A3 0xa338…64cc crypto 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3433 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$7,411 (+63%) realized +$7,408 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%57W / 509L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day3433.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$689
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3433 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-80.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 566 -78.7% -80.8% 10% 7% -27.8%
≤30d 566 -78.7% -80.8% 10% 7% -27.8%
≤90d 566 -78.7% -80.8% 10% 7% -27.8%
all 566 -78.7% -80.8% 10% 7% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3433.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -80.8% 7% -27.8%
10% ← realistic here -82.6% 2% -34.7%
15% -84.3% 1% -41.0%
20% -85.8% 1% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -79% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -72% → late -86% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
26.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$9 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$7,408
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses57 / 509
Open positions1
Markets (closed)566 / 75
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$158
Trades / day3433.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 566 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 65¢ 69¢ $51 $55 +$3 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $0 +$10 +2407%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$2 -178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $13 −$11 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$15 -110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $17 −$14 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$8 -953%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$9 -107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$18 -993%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$6 -156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$4 -163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $22 −$19 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$6 -391%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$13 -303%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $13 −$20 -156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$7 -114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$15 -111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$6 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$5 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$32 -121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$5 -128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$5 -373%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $11 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $9 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $9 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 3m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.12 · official $54.55 (match) · 3500 history records