Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:42:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa338…9501 world 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%7W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% −$1
other 17% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -0.3% -9.8% 21% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 14 -0.3% -9.8% 21% 0% -9.7%
all 22 -0.3% -9.8% 32% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses7 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage452d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $13 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $32 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 21 $2 $0 -6%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 28 $12 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win by 100–124 seats? Apr 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Mar 29 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $9 49m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $24 49m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $25 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $8 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $40 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $40 6h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $6 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $40 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $40 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $5 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $2 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $5 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 10¢ $7 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $3 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $16 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $19 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $40 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $41 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 33¢ $13 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 34¢ $13 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $7 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $35 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $42 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $37 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.00 (match) · 72 history records