trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 54¢ | 55¢ | $30 | $30 | +$0 (+1%) |
| FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | $108 | $0 | −$108 (-100%) |
| Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 | Over | 30¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $0 | −$30 (-100%) |
| Will CDU/CSU win more seats than SPD and Greens? | No | 15¢ | 0¢ | $41 | $0 | −$41 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 | Jun 14 | $41 | +$44 | +107% |
| Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 | Jun 14 | $31 | −$30 | -98% |
| Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 | Jun 14 | $81 | +$94 | +116% |
| Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score | Jun 14 | $31 | +$72 | +234% |
| Will CDU/CSU win more seats than SPD and Greens? | Feb 23 | $41 | −$41 | -100% |
| FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? | Feb 23 | $113 | −$103 | -91% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +89.5% | +71.5% | 75% | 75% | +79.6% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +89.5% | +71.5% | 75% | 75% | +79.6% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +89.5% | +71.5% | 75% | 75% | +79.6% |
| all | 6 | +27.1% | +15.0% | 50% | 50% | -0.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +15.0% | 50% | -0.0% |
| 10% | +4.0% | 50% | -9.6% |
| 15% | -6.1% | 50% | -18.3% |
| 20% | -15.3% | 50% | -26.3% |