Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:26:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa33d…3ef2 weather 1571 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$60 (+1%) realized +$182 · open −$122
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate58%890W / 643L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day38.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$981now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$19
14 days+$43
30 days−$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% −$174
politics 6% −$60
other 2% −$93
world 1% −$27
finance 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +4.3% -5.6% 78% 60% -2.6%
≤30d 939 -5.6% -14.6% 62% 48% -12.5%
≤90d 1533 -6.2% -15.2% 58% 42% -12.6%
all 1533 -6.2% -15.2% 58% 42% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 42% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 34% -20.9%
15% -30.7% 27% -28.6%
20% -37.5% 19% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$981
Realized+$182
Unrealized−$122
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses890 / 643
Open positions63
Markets (closed)1533 / 1571
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day38.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 63 History 1533 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 26? No 69¢ 100¢ $45 $65 +$20 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 26? No 66¢ 100¢ $40 $61 +$21 (+52%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? No 51¢ 100¢ $30 $59 +$29 (+96%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 26? No 77¢ 100¢ $40 $52 +$12 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? No 72¢ 80¢ $45 $50 +$5 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 27? No 76¢ 87¢ $35 $40 +$5 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 26? No 76¢ 100¢ $30 $39 +$9 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? No 67¢ 66¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 27? No 71¢ 77¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27? No 75¢ 66¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 26? No 64¢ 56¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 26? No 73¢ 62¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 27? No 62¢ 61¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? No 77¢ 62¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 27? No 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 26? No 77¢ 56¢ $40 $29 −$11 (-27%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 66¢ 16¢ $101 $25 −$76 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 26? No 66¢ 62¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 27? No 61¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 26? No 65¢ 61¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 26? No 65¢ 57¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 75¢ 99¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+32%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay No 79¢ 84¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+7%)
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes 34¢ 18¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 26 $18 −$19 -104%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $38 −$61 -163%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 25? Jun 26 $25 +$9 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 25? Jun 26 $40 +$12 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 25? Jun 26 $30 +$13 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 25? Jun 25 $36 +$17 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $15 +$8 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $41 +$13 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $31 +$19 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $41 +$15 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 25? Jun 25 $15 +$9 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 24? Jun 25 $30 +$9 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 24? Jun 25 $36 +$14 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 24? Jun 25 $20 +$8 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on June 24? Jun 25 $36 +$19 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 +$11 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $22 +$10 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $20 +$9 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$3 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $20 +$12 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 25? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 24 $10 +$7 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 23? Jun 24 $15 +$9 +58%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 24 $10 +$5 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $30 +$14 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 +$10 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $25 +$9 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 +$10 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 22? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 24? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 24? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 23 $10 +$6 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 22? Jun 23 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 23? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 23? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 23? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 23? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 27? BUY No 61¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 62¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 64¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 27? BUY No 53¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 71¢ $36 6h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27? BUY No 75¢ $40 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 67¢ $41 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 27? BUY No 76¢ $35 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 26? BUY No 77¢ $40 24h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 64¢ $41 24h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 26? BUY No 73¢ $41 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 26? BUY No 66¢ $25 24h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 26? BUY No 68¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 65¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 26? BUY No 65¢ $20 25h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 65¢ $20 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 72¢ $46 25h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 27? BUY No 63¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 27? BUY No 73¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 72¢ $20 29h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 76¢ $51 29h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 26? BUY No 71¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 26? BUY No 69¢ $46 29h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 76¢ $30 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 51¢ $31 29h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 26? BUY No 58¢ $15 29h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 62¢ $10 29h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 77¢ $40 29h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 77¢ $40 30h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 25? BUY No 76¢ $40 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $980.78 · official $980.49 (match) · 3500 history records