Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:47:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa33d…eabe other 168 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$110 (-0%) realized −$108 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate17%28W / 138L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,944per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$12
14 days−$58
30 days−$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$65
politics 43% −$174
sports 6% +$102
economics 2% −$7
world 1% −$5
culture 1% −$3
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 51 -4.0% -13.1% 8% 2% -9.7%
≤90d 109 -3.2% -12.4% 6% 2% -9.7%
all 166 +2.1% -7.6% 17% 12% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 12% -9.6%
10% -16.5% 11% -18.2%
15% -24.6% 8% -26.1%
20% -32.0% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,860) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$12 · ×4.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized−$108
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses28 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)166 / 168
History coverage133d
Avg bet$1,944
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $218 $218 +$0 (+0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 42¢ $56 $54 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $1,641 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $265 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 26 $268 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 25 $268 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $8,092 −$8 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 24 $174 +$2 +1%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $891 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $232 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1,905 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $228 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,271 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $313 +$1 +0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $5,143 −$8 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,207 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,653 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,754 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $4,173 −$6 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $4,333 −$6 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $12,343 −$13 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,241 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $2,812 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,346 −$4 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $2,827 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $3,898 −$5 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $2,369 −$4 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,144 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,202 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,961 −$5 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $5,291 −$6 -0%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $75 +$76 +101%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,208 −$3 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 05 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $5,911 −$6 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,168 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $4,102 −$5 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $3,244 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,379 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 02 $55 −$55 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $823 +$2 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $1,087 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $4,151 −$5 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $3,993 −$4 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 30 $2,920 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $4,158 −$5 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $989 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $4,399 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $218 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $212 19h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $212 21h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $265 23h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $265 25h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $229 43h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $230 45h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $268 2d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $268 2d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $268 2d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $268 2d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $259 2d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $260 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $176 4d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $647 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $648 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $889 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $891 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $174 5d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $231 6d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $232 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $242 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $242 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $228 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $228 8d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $369 9d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $369 10d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $962 10d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $963 10d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,217 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.12 · official $272.12 (match) · 677 history records