Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa340…cf1c world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% $0
other 19% +$1
politics 13% $0
economics 8% $0
crypto 5% −$1
culture 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.5% 62% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 35% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 35% 0% -9.6%
all 47 -0.4% -9.9% 40% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage273d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 72¢ 72¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $81 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $19 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $27 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $21 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $27 $0 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 17 $3 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 14 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Oct 14 $0 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Oct 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 28 $8 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 28 $8 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $8 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 27 $41 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 25 $24 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30? Sep 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? Sep 25 $27 $0 +1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Sep 21 $3 −$1 -31%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $2 $0 +11%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $25 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $27 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $27 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $27 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $27 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $22 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $27 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $30 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $30 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $30 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $30 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $27 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $19 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $19 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $7 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $7 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.20 · official $25.20 (match) · 163 history records