Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:59:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa348…dad3 crypto 1043 markets active 10h ago coverage 36d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29 (-2%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%551W / 492L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day54.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$44
14 days−$44
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -15.3% -23.4% 53% 41% -33.5%
≤30d 859 -4.6% -13.7% 54% 45% -14.9%
≤90d 1043 -6.3% -15.2% 53% 44% -15.0%
all 1043 -6.3% -15.2% 53% 44% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 44% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 35% -23.1%
15% -30.8% 29% -30.6%
20% -37.5% 23% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses551 / 492
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1043 / 1043
History coverage36d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day54.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1043 Trades
no open positions (355 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$5 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $4 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $4 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2110 history records