Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:18:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa34d…a85c other 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%17W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$43
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$48
politics 24% −$14
sports 17% −$9
crypto 9% −$2
economics 6% −$2
culture 6% −$2
finance 5% −$1
world 5% −$3
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 60 -1.3% -10.7% 5% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 110 -0.8% -10.3% 10% 0% -9.9%
all 137 -0.8% -10.2% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 120
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage109d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $436 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 20 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $139 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $373 −$1 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $82 $0 -0%
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $104 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 17 $122 −$3 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $94 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $108 −$2 -2%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $62 $0 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $42 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $347 −$1 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $95 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 14 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $333 −$2 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $190 −$2 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $98 −$1 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $49 $0 -1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $52 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Mike Maignan record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 10 $59 −$17 -28%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 10 $45 $0 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Hunter Biden be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 09 $16 −$3 -17%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 07 $59 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $41 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $92 −$1 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $195 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $51 −$1 -1%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $348 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 04 $20 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $203 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $120 −$1 -1%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 02 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $41 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $130 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 31 $46 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $60 1h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $68 1h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $68 6h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $53 7h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $53 15h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $42 15h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $42 22h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $47 22h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $48 28h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $38 29h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $38 37h
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $57 37h
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $57 46h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $47 46h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $44 2d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $44 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $3 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 2d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $41 2d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $42 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $59 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 97¢ $60 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $40 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $40 3d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $56 3d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $57 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $62 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.02 · official $60.02 (match) · 537 history records