Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:59:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A3 0xa34d…28c6 crypto 1502 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-1%) realized −$76 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%304W / 1190L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day37.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$149
14 days−$1,174
30 days−$716
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$27
other 1% $0
sports 0% +$87
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -47.7% -52.6% 12% 11% -54.9%
≤30d 876 -18.3% -26.1% 14% 14% -32.2%
≤90d 1494 +2.9% -6.9% 20% 20% -9.3%
all 1494 +2.9% -6.9% 20% 20% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 20% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 20% -18.0%
15% -23.9% 20% -25.9%
20% -31.4% 20% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$4 · ×3.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$76
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses304 / 1190
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1494 / 1502
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day37.3
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1494 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-17%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+96%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 17¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-86%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $10 +$21 +199%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$17 +522%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$12 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$17 +426%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$12 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$11 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$15 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.56 · official $19.56 (match) · 3500 history records