Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa357…1045 other 233 markets active 289d ago coverage 606d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$17,803 (+10%) realized +$17,803 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate34%79W / 154L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$748per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% +$22,260
politics 30% −$8,435
other 24% +$4,551
world 5% +$455
sports 1% −$250
economics 1% −$592
tech 0% −$161
culture 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 233 -22.0% -29.4% 34% 26% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 26% -0.1%
10% -36.2% 22% -9.7%
15% -42.4% 18% -18.4%
20% -48.0% 15% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 40% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -25% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$778 vs −$284 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17,803
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses79 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)233 / 233
History coverage606d
Avg bet$748
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 233 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Joe Rogan attend presidential inauguration? Aug 30 $595 +$41 +7%
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Trump say "ceasefire" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his Jan 20 $940 −$940 -100%
Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech Jan 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $162 −$162 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $3,140 −$66 -2%
Will Trump get 74-76m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? Jan 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will 'Moana 2' gross more than $180m on 5-day opening weekend? Jan 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will another movie gross most in 2024? Jan 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024? Jan 19 $689 −$689 -100%
Will Trump get more votes than 2020? Jan 19 $73 −$73 -100%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Jan 19 $487 −$223 -46%
Will 'Moana 2' gross over $200m on 5-day opening? Jan 19 $128 +$5 +4%
Israel military strike against Iran in November? Jan 19 $114 +$86 +75%
Iran strike on Israel before December? Jan 19 $437 +$54 +12%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 19 $474 +$126 +27%
No Israel strike Iran on by Sunday Oct 27? Nov 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 25? Nov 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Israel military response against Iran by Friday? Nov 17 $74 −$74 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? Nov 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Iran strike on Israel by Nov 8? Nov 17 $240 −$40 -16%
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presiden Nov 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Will there be another debate? Nov 07 $586 −$485 -83%
ETHBTC above 0.04 on Halloween? Nov 07 $2,207 −$1,343 -61%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $5,073 −$4,725 -93%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $2,560 −$1,967 -77%
Will Elizabeth Warren win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $1,284 −$1,284 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $1,028 −$1,028 -100%
Will Kanye West win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $1,518 −$1,518 -100%
Will Kamala say "Thank you" 5+ times in her speech after the election Nov 07 $31 +$13 +43%
Will Kamala say "Biden" in her speech after the election is called? Nov 07 $120 +$30 +25%
Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oct 26? Nov 05 $33 +$2 +5%
Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday Oct 20? Nov 05 $49 +$1 +3%
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024? Nov 05 $105 +$8 +7%
No Israel strike Iran by Sunday Oct 20? Nov 05 $78 +$22 +28%
Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday Oct 27? Nov 05 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Israel strike Iran on Thursday Oct 24? Nov 05 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Israel strike Iran on Wednesday Oct 23? Nov 05 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Israel strike Iran on Tuesday Oct 22? Nov 05 $95 +$5 +5%
Israel military response against Iran in October? Nov 05 $695 +$7 +1%
Will Israel strike Iran on Monday or earlier? Nov 05 $116 +$14 +13%
Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? Oct 20 $47 +$3 +6%
Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oct 19? Oct 20 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Israel strike Iran on Thursday Oct 17? Oct 20 $47 +$3 +6%
Israel military response against Iran by Friday? Oct 20 $68 +$32 +47%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Oct 14 $4,556 +$7 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 289d
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? BUY Yes 9¢ $50 510d
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 510d
Will Trump say "ceasefire" during his inauguration speech? BUY Yes 37¢ $55 510d
Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech? BUY Yes 5¢ $13 510d
Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 510d
Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 510d
Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 510d
Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 510d
Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech? BUY Yes 5¢ $27 510d
Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech? BUY Yes 34¢ $18 510d
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his BUY Yes 94¢ $940 510d
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 510d
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? BUY Yes 11¢ $55 510d
Will Joe Rogan attend presidential inauguration? BUY Yes 95¢ $254 511d
Will Joe Rogan attend presidential inauguration? BUY Yes 95¢ $62 511d
Will Joe Rogan attend presidential inauguration? BUY Yes 92¢ $279 511d
Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech BUY Yes 45¢ $7 511d
Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech BUY Yes 45¢ $33 511d
Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech BUY Yes 45¢ $1 511d
Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech? BUY Yes 25¢ $97 511d
Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech BUY Yes 45¢ $4 511d
Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 511d
Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 511d
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? SELL Yes 41¢ $2,062 511d
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? SELL Yes 43¢ $19 511d
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? SELL Yes 43¢ $10 511d
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? SELL Yes 43¢ $60 511d
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 511d
Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 511d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1731 history records