Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:56:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A3 0xa35d…102a sports 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$784 (+4%) realized +$652 · open +$132
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%44W / 35L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day26.9pace
Fees−$304est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$727now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,203
7 days+$521
14 days+$296
30 days+$296
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$149
crypto 3% +$279
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +12.9% +2.2% 56% 56% -3.6%
≤30d 79 +10.3% -0.2% 56% 54% -5.1%
≤90d 79 +10.3% -0.2% 56% 54% -5.1%
all 79 +10.3% -0.2% 56% 54% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.2% 54% -5.1%
10% ← realistic here -9.7% 53% -14.2%
15% -18.5% 51% -22.5%
20% -26.5% 44% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$193 vs −$234 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$727
Realized+$652
Unrealized+$132
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses44 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$304
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage8d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 52¢ 76¢ $299 $434 +$135 (+45%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $296 $293 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 23 $507 +$368 +73%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $591 −$580 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $452 +$437 +97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $391 −$386 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $599 −$590 -98%
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro Jun 23 $440 +$514 +117%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 22 $376 +$464 +123%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 22 $343 +$333 +97%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 22 $300 −$295 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $277 +$661 +238%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $155 −$155 -100%
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva Jun 22 $294 −$265 -90%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 22 $307 +$394 +129%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $468 +$167 +36%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $343 −$339 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $269 +$74 +28%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $198 +$71 +36%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $156 −$154 -99%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $144 −$86 -60%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 22 $210 +$230 +110%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $243 −$239 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $289 +$435 +151%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $146 +$142 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $105 +$181 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 21 $73 −$70 -96%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $100 +$62 +62%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $117 +$80 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $42 +$51 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$10 -20%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $82 −$81 -98%
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz Jun 20 $34 +$48 +140%
ITF Blois: Francesca Curmi vs Alevtina Ibragimova Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
ITF Sapporo: Gaeul Jang vs Aishi Das Jun 20 $149 −$147 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $575 −$528 -92%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $491 −$460 -94%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $965 −$946 -98%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $400 +$344 +86%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $199 +$523 +262%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $497 −$490 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $395 +$303 +77%
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Jun 19 $610 −$597 -98%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $720 +$786 +109%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $380 +$340 +89%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $458 +$600 +131%
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 18 $158 −$95 -60%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $70 +$30 +43%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 18 $106 −$104 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$20 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $300 45m
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 52¢ $303 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Boston Red Sox 93¢ $876 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 21¢ $102 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $488 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $889 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 61¢ $391 2h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $507 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 16¢ $101 2h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ $452 3h
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro SELL Hernan Casanova 100¢ $954 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 52¢ $498 3h
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Hernan Casanova 45¢ $350 4h
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Hernan Casanova 48¢ $7 4h
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Hernan Casanova 48¢ $3 4h
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Hernan Casanova 48¢ $3 4h
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Hernan Casanova 48¢ $3 4h
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Hernan Casanova 48¢ $3 4h
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Hernan Casanova 48¢ $3 4h
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Hernan Casanova 48¢ $3 4h
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Hernan Casanova 48¢ $3 4h
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Hernan Casanova 48¢ $3 4h
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Hernan Casanova 48¢ $3 4h
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Hernan Casanova 48¢ $3 4h
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Hernan Casanova 48¢ $3 4h
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Hernan Casanova 48¢ $3 4h
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Hernan Casanova 48¢ $3 4h
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Hernan Casanova 48¢ $3 4h
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Hernan Casanova 48¢ $3 4h
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Hernan Casanova 48¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $727.22 · official $715.72 · 218 history records