Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:15:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa35e…0188 world 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4,187 (-1%) realized −$4,254 · open +$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate74%43W / 15L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,426per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$998now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$109
14 days−$69
30 days−$19,966
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% −$8,183
other 14% +$2,471
culture 2% +$1,216
tech 2% +$570
politics 1% −$109
crypto 0% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -97.0% -97.3% 0% 0% -97.3%
≤30d 7 -32.9% -39.3% 43% 14% -21.8%
≤90d 54 -5.9% -14.9% 72% 17% -10.9%
all 58 -4.7% -13.8% 74% 19% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 19% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 5% -19.2%
15% -29.6% 0% -27.0%
20% -36.5% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$4,927) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$566 vs −$1,928 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$998
Realized−$4,254
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses43 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)58 / 61
History coverage599d
Avg bet$6,426
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $900 $994 +$94 (+10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $30 $3 −$27 (-89%)
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? No 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 26 $113 −$109 -97%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Jun 20 $880 −$10 -1%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $300 +$50 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $21,760 −$14,060 -65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $12,345 −$11,429 -93%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $9,720 +$280 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $101,630 +$5,312 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $42,578 +$6,313 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 24 $21,466 +$544 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 22 $4,796 −$317 -7%
Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1,860 −$1,860 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2,880 +$721 +25%
Will Italy be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1,368 +$119 +9%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $4,876 +$1,086 +22%
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1,019 +$51 +5%
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $595 +$183 +31%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $15,635 +$2,026 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 15 $27,044 +$1,087 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 15 $1,640 −$498 -30%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 15 $18 −$2 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 11 $8,026 +$260 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 10 $819 +$9 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 10 $7,125 +$570 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $6,633 +$175 +3%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? May 05 $27 +$1 +4%
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? May 04 $3,554 −$62 -2%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? May 04 $4,802 +$106 +2%
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 04 $3,138 +$112 +4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 04 $13 +$1 +6%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 04 $101 −$71 -70%
Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026? May 02 $4,696 +$47 +1%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? May 01 $1,205 +$4 +0%
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale? May 01 $1,702 −$37 -2%
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? May 01 $4,530 −$9 -0%
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? May 01 $1,605 +$2 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $3,744 +$573 +15%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? May 01 $4,423 +$399 +9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 01 $2,251 +$462 +20%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? May 01 $441 +$9 +2%
Over $150M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $915 $0 -0%
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $4,927 +$4 +0%
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $362 +$29 +8%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $3,676 +$292 +8%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $6,840 +$1,506 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $3,900 +$142 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 22 $1,257 −$456 -36%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 21 $3,236 +$160 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $14,230 +$240 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $17 37m
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $7 38m
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $0 49m
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $0 49m
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $4 49m
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $32 2h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $0 2h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $13 2h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $4 2h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $1 2h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $22 2h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $0 2h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $1 2h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $19 2h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $21 2h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 3h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 3h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 3h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 3h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 3h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 3h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 3h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 3h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 3h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 3h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 3h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 3h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 3h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 3h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $997.54 · official $997.57 (match) · 1413 history records