Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa362…d665 crypto 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (106 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+3%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate61%30W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day106.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (106 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -15.1% -23.2% 61% 49% -10.8%
≤30d 49 -15.1% -23.2% 61% 49% -10.8%
≤90d 49 -15.1% -23.2% 61% 49% -10.8%
all 49 -15.1% -23.2% 61% 49% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover106.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 49% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -30.6% 31% -19.3%
15% -37.3% 12% -27.1%
20% -43.4% 6% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses30 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day106.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$25 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $76 +$15 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $56 +$13 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$7 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$5 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $33 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $34 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $58 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $52 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $51 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.30 · official $2.80 · 131 history records