Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:55:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A3 0xa369…5270 crypto 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-2%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%25W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$42
other 17% +$18
sports 5% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -49.7% -54.5% 33% 33% -0.2%
≤30d 3 -49.7% -54.5% 33% 33% -0.2%
≤90d 3 -49.7% -54.5% 33% 33% -0.2%
all 35 +8.4% -1.9% 71% 57% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 57% -11.4%
10% -11.3% 40% -19.9%
15% -19.9% 26% -27.6%
20% -27.7% 20% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses25 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage189d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$4 -69%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $55 +$11 +20%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 21 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Feb 21 $271 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Feb 21 $29 +$1 +4%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 21 $40 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Feb 10 $20 $0 -1%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 10 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 10 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 9? Feb 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 09 $8 +$2 +33%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 40 Feb 09 $40 +$1 +1%
Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts? Feb 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 08 $10 −$1 -6%
Panthers vs. Jets Jan 23 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jan 01 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jan 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jan 01 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jan 01 $13 +$7 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jan 01 $13 +$7 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Dec 29 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Dec 29 $11 +$9 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Dec 29 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Dec 29 $6 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Dec 29 $6 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Dec 29 $23 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Dec 29 $6 +$4 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Dec 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Dec 28 $4 +$2 +43%
Battle of the Sexes: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nick Kyrgios Dec 28 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Dec 24 $7 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Dec 24 $4 +$1 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Dec 24 $6 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 54m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 55m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 87¢ $25 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $45 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $196 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $158 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $15 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $0 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $180 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $88 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $91 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $0 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 117d
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 117d
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $20 129d
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $20 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $20 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $20 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 9? BUY Up 49¢ $20 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records