Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa369…3ad6 sports 285 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,516 (-6%) realized −$1,614 · open +$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%128W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$422est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$228
14 days+$814
30 days−$1,669
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +8.7% -1.6% 56% 50% +4.0%
≤30d 192 -2.4% -11.7% 47% 44% -18.7%
≤90d 283 -7.0% -15.8% 45% 42% -17.4%
all 283 -7.0% -15.8% 45% 42% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 42% -17.4%
10% -23.9% 38% -25.3%
15% -31.3% 35% -32.5%
20% -38.0% 33% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$93 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized−$1,614
Unrealized+$98
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses128 / 155
Est. fees paid−$422
Open positions2
Markets (closed)283 / 285
History coverage57d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Rooster 42¢ 100¢ $125 $300 +$175 (+140%)
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs Ground Zero 39¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $96 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $96 −$94 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $13 +$7 +50%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 16 $70 −$65 -93%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $114 −$14 -12%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $219 +$181 +83%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $69 +$51 +74%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $86 −$84 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $33 −$32 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $209 +$191 +91%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $133 −$132 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $63 +$37 +60%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $79 −$78 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $31 +$69 +226%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $62 +$38 +62%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $157 +$148 +95%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $61 +$132 +218%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $83 −$82 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $52 +$47 +90%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 10 $160 +$77 +48%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $7 +$7 +97%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $95 +$125 +131%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $13 +$24 +183%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $103 +$82 +79%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $28 −$27 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs BIG (+3.5) Jun 09 $29 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Jun 08 $175 +$360 +206%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $486 +$342 +70%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $54 +$17 +32%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 07 $36 +$36 +101%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs FlyQuest (+3.5) Jun 07 $30 +$65 +216%
Map Handicap: CHAOS (-1.5) vs WRAITH PCIFIC (+1.5) Jun 06 $153 +$182 +119%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $69 +$131 +188%
Map Handicap: G2.A (-1.5) vs against All authority (+1.5) Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Jun 06 $34 −$33 -98%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $69 −$68 -98%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $511 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $74 −$73 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 04 $43 −$42 -98%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner Jun 04 $13 −$13 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $78 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playo Jun 04 $35 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $78 −$78 -99%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: S Jun 04 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 04 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $27 +$52 +197%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G Jun 03 $37 +$39 +105%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $41 −$18 -44%
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs REJECT (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 03 $66 −$65 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 20¢ $20 33m
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 57¢ $58 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 46¢ $47 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 46¢ $47 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 33¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 56¢ $57 16h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 43¢ $2 16h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 43¢ $37 16h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 56¢ $57 17h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner BUY illwill 38¢ $39 17h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 66¢ $13 22h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 44¢ $45 45h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 38¢ $39 46h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 68¢ $22 46h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 67¢ $45 46h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 40¢ $41 46h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 74¢ $75 46h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 60¢ $61 46h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 52¢ $105 46h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 52¢ $53 46h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY LPH Gaming 51¢ $3 47h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 57¢ $69 47h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 34¢ $17 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 30¢ $16 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY illwill 66¢ $119 3d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY illwill 66¢ $14 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $79 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $103 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 52¢ $105 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $63 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.95 · official $299.95 (match) · 785 history records