Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:35:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa36b…7aab other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate28%9W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% −$6
politics 24% +$1
other 22% −$2
sports 7% $0
finance 6% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 5 -2.8% -12.1% 0% 0% -12.8%
≤90d 7 -2.0% -11.3% 14% 0% -11.6%
all 32 -0.3% -9.8% 28% 3% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 3% -10.4%
10% -18.4% 3% -18.9%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses9 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage273d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $41 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $41 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $46 −$4 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $33 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $46 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 21 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $9 −$1 -16%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Petr Fiala be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after Oct 04 $3 +$1 +27%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $19 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 29 $22 $0 +1%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 28 $5 $0 -7%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $55 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 27 $27 $0 -1%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $40 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $41 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $6 27d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $35 27d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $41 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $10 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $8 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $23 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $46 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 72¢ $32 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 75¢ $11 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 75¢ $22 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $46 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $46 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $46 32d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $46 32d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $6 261d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 85¢ $23 261d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $6 261d
Will Petr Fiala be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after SELL Yes 3¢ $4 261d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 85¢ $23 261d
Will Petr Fiala be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after BUY Yes 3¢ $1 261d
Will Petr Fiala be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after BUY Yes 3¢ $1 261d
Will Petr Fiala be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after BUY Yes 3¢ $1 261d
Will Petr Fiala be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after BUY Yes 3¢ $1 261d
Will Petr Fiala be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after BUY Yes 3¢ $0 261d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $10 263d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records