Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:03:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa36b…f273 sports 233 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$43 (+1%) realized +$124 · open −$81
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%101W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day24.7pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$916now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$172
14 days+$91
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$179
other 28% −$98
world 10% −$149
politics 7% +$34
crypto 2% +$49
culture 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 +5.9% -4.2% 61% 59% -2.0%
≤30d 192 -6.1% -15.1% 53% 51% -7.2%
≤90d 192 -6.1% -15.1% 53% 51% -7.2%
all 192 -6.1% -15.1% 53% 51% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 51% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 42% -16.1%
15% -30.6% 35% -24.2%
20% -37.4% 30% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$916
Realized+$124
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses101 / 91
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions41
Markets (closed)192 / 233
History coverage11d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day24.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 72¢ $90 $83 −$7 (-8%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $59 $67 +$8 (+14%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $68 $66 −$2 (-3%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 89¢ 100¢ $58 $65 +$7 (+12%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $53 $53 +$1 (+1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Zhuoxuan Bai Zhuoxuan Bai 53¢ 64¢ $39 $47 +$8 (+20%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ 56¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 46¢ 48¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+3%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 89¢ $33 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? No 61¢ 100¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+64%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes 66¢ 52¢ $39 $31 −$8 (-20%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 74¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 87¢ 88¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 95¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+19%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 38¢ $44 $22 −$22 (-50%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 78¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 53¢ 22¢ $48 $20 −$28 (-58%)
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 59¢ 40¢ $28 $19 −$9 (-32%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $14 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by June 30? Yes 33¢ 25¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 20¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 68¢ $16 $15 −$2 (-10%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? No 91¢ 96¢ $13 $13 +$1 (+5%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 85¢ 84¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $59 +$12 +20%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $59 +$12 +21%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $37 +$19 +52%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 24 $45 +$31 +70%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $25 +$25 +101%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 24 $38 −$37 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $16 +$17 +109%
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Jun 23 $8 +$1 +13%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $50 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $33 −$33 -100%
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) Jun 23 $29 +$2 +9%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $82 +$16 +20%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $5 +$3 +65%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $33 +$30 +92%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 +$12 +60%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $55 +$54 +97%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 23 $10 $0 -2%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $28 +$28 +97%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 22 $11 −$10 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 22 $27 −$26 -99%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $94 +$48 +52%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +32%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $22 −$22 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $24 +$34 +140%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $5 +$8 +146%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $14 +$6 +48%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $11 +$3 +27%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Ayla Aksu Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $32 +$24 +76%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $21 +$17 +84%
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre Jun 20 $6 +$2 +27%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +20%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $78 −$78 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $22 −$22 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $62 +$48 +76%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +20%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $24 +$19 +82%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $19 +$6 +29%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $5 +$6 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ $37 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Zhuoxuan Bai BUY Zhuoxuan Bai 53¢ $40 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 20¢ $15 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 79¢ $90 1h
Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $21 12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Jordan 42¢ $10 13h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Panama 37¢ $11 13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $69 13h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $38 16h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 49¢ $25 18h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $37 19h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 58¢ $45 19h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 59¢ $50 20h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 87¢ $11 20h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 87¢ $11 20h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 46¢ $36 20h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 59¢ $28 22h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 53¢ $48 22h
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 22h
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? BUY Yes 44¢ $13 22h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $5 22h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 53¢ $27 22h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 65¢ $37 22h
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY BESTIA 88¢ $8 22h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY K27 46¢ $27 36h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY K27 46¢ $2 37h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 49¢ $0 39h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ $28 40h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 55¢ $11 43h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 62¢ $20 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $915.74 · official $915.74 (match) · 375 history records