Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:43:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A3 0xa36c…5754 sports 524 markets active 2d ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,176 (-5%) realized −$6,176 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%215W / 309L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$1,109est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$2,269
14 days−$577
30 days+$4,297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$4,136
other 5% −$2,936
crypto 2% −$596
world 0% $0
politics 0% −$6
tech 0% +$80
weather 0% −$35
finance 0% −$8
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -21.1% -28.6% 37% 37% -20.4%
≤30d 231 +1.5% -8.1% 39% 39% +1.0%
≤90d 442 -11.6% -20.1% 35% 34% -22.8%
all 524 +2.7% -7.1% 41% 40% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 40% -14.1%
10% -16.0% 38% -22.3%
15% -24.1% 35% -29.8%
20% -31.5% 31% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$212 vs −$172 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,176
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses215 / 309
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1,109
Open positions0
Markets (closed)524 / 524
History coverage183d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 524 Trades
no open positions (115 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,626 −$1,277 -78%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $803 +$839 +104%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $216 −$24 -11%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $1,935 −$1,105 -57%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $117 −$115 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $102 +$103 +101%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 11 $411 −$405 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $508 −$500 -98%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 11 $444 −$438 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $304 −$300 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $355 +$151 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $305 +$289 +95%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $102 +$105 +103%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $102 +$176 +172%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $101 −$1 -1%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 10 $203 −$200 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $42 −$35 -82%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 10 $416 +$386 +93%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $203 +$251 +123%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 10 $101 +$91 +89%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $405 +$296 +73%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $102 +$98 +97%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $122 +$85 +70%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 09 $254 −$250 -98%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 09 $334 −$175 -52%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $1,030 +$492 +48%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $102 −$39 -38%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $112 +$102 +91%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova Jun 09 $112 −$59 -52%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $508 +$555 +109%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 08 $304 −$300 -99%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $116 −$115 -99%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $305 +$322 +106%
Bratislava: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Tomas Barrios Jun 08 $102 +$102 +101%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $107 −$105 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $314 −$310 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 15¢ $103 46h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 11¢ $212 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $138 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 45¢ $1,626 3d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 22¢ $102 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Sho Shimabukuro 56¢ $1,641 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 47¢ $134 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 47¢ $58 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 27¢ $511 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 27¢ $262 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 27¢ $2 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 27¢ $29 3d
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 20¢ $780 3d
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 48¢ $1,935 3d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Thijs Boogaard 58¢ $101 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners $15 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $216 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $101 4d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Sorana Cirstea 50¢ $203 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 49¢ $508 4d
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch BUY Henrique Rocha 54¢ $444 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $102 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $304 4d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 97¢ $389 4d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 58¢ $101 4d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 65¢ $151 4d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz SELL Martin Landaluce 38¢ $116 4d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Sorana Cirstea 50¢ $208 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 66¢ $236 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1178 history records