Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:27:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa36f…b073 crypto 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$23 (-13%) realized −$21 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day156.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -18.0% -25.8% 41% 35% -21.1%
≤30d 34 -18.0% -25.8% 41% 35% -21.1%
≤90d 34 -18.0% -25.8% 41% 35% -21.1%
all 34 -18.0% -25.8% 41% 35% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover156.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.8% 35% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.9% 26% -28.7%
15% -39.4% 26% -35.6%
20% -45.3% 18% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day156.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Up 36¢ 18¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-51%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 51¢ 96¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$3 -26%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$6 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$11 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -44%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$4 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -35%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +43%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$13 +172%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -23%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$15 +175%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 45m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.10 · official $4.82 (match) · 190 history records