Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:58:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A3 0xa371…eaa5 sports 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$762 (+7%) realized +$856 · open −$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%73W / 72L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$170est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$336now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days−$94
14 days+$42
30 days+$589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$479
other 3% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -5.3% -14.3% 45% 45% -12.1%
≤30d 143 +4.7% -5.3% 50% 49% -4.6%
≤90d 145 +5.7% -4.3% 50% 50% -4.1%
all 145 +5.7% -4.3% 50% 50% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 50% -4.1%
10% -13.5% 50% -13.3%
15% -21.9% 50% -21.7%
20% -29.5% 49% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$71 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$336
Realized+$856
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses73 / 72
Est. fees paid−$170
Open positions5
Markets (closed)145 / 150
History coverage42d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Botic van de Zandschulp 26¢ 25¢ $102 $98 −$4 (-4%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) 9z 54¢ 55¢ $82 $83 +$1 (+1%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 38¢ 36¢ $82 $79 −$3 (-4%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 36¢ 34¢ $82 $76 −$6 (-7%)
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Team Nemesis 48¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 17 $83 −$83 -100%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $84 −$84 -100%
Minaur vs. Diallo: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $103 +$79 +76%
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Jun 16 $83 +$69 +82%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 16 $83 −$4 -5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 16 $83 −$83 -100%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 16 $84 −$84 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 16 $124 −$124 -100%
Mensik vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $105 +$78 +74%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $84 +$158 +188%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $83 +$56 +67%
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) Jun 16 $83 +$69 +83%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $43 +$84 +197%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $83 +$56 +67%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $83 +$88 +105%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs G2 NORD (+2.5) Jun 13 $43 −$43 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $247 −$247 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $83 +$47 +57%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $83 −$83 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $83 −$83 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $84 −$84 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $166 +$152 +92%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Giron (+1.5) Jun 12 $83 +$63 +76%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $84 −$84 -100%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $104 +$151 +145%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $63 +$59 +93%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $63 −$63 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 12 $63 −$63 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 11 $63 +$81 +129%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $83 +$61 +73%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $104 +$118 +114%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs James McCabe Jun 11 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $83 −$83 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 11 $83 −$83 -100%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 11 $63 −$63 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $43 +$74 +172%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $83 −$83 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $83 −$83 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $84 −$84 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $83 +$57 +69%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 09 $83 +$54 +65%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $84 −$84 -100%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 08 $83 +$56 +67%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $83 −$83 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $83 +$103 +124%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $43 −$43 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 38¢ $84 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY Yellow Submarine 36¢ $84 5h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 54¢ $83 5h
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) BUY Team Nemesis 48¢ $83 9h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 26¢ $84 29h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 26¢ $104 29h
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) BUY HyperSpirit 54¢ $83 47h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $83 47h
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) BUY Yakult Brothers 54¢ $83 2d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 59¢ $40 2d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 59¢ $43 2d
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) BUY Hokori 39¢ $84 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $83 3d
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 41¢ $124 3d
Mensik vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 56¢ $22 3d
Minaur vs. Diallo: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 56¢ $103 3d
Mensik vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 57¢ $83 3d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 34¢ $84 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $43 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 59¢ $83 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 33¢ $43 4d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 24¢ $43 4d
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs G2 NORD (+2.5) BUY Solary 37¢ $43 4d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St BUY KOLESIE 63¢ $83 4d
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $255 5d
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Noir Esports 52¢ $83 5d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Vitality 53¢ $83 5d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St BUY Leo Team 40¢ $83 5d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $83 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 51¢ $63 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $335.99 · official $335.99 (match) · 316 history records