Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:23:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A3 0xa372…65bb crypto 1065 markets active 1h ago coverage 642d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$185 (+2%) realized +$178 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%608W / 453L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$179
7 days−$52
14 days+$49
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$215
crypto 30% −$16
other 2% −$42
weather 1% −$20
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +0.0% -9.5% 69% 66% -11.4%
≤30d 298 +3.1% -6.8% 67% 63% -8.7%
≤90d 1047 +3.0% -6.8% 58% 55% -7.9%
all 1061 +2.9% -6.9% 57% 55% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 55% -8.1%
10% -15.8% 49% -16.9%
15% -23.9% 45% -24.9%
20% -31.4% 38% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

642d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$178
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses608 / 453
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1061 / 1065
History coverage642d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1061 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Under 72¢ 88¢ $49 $59 +$11 (+22%)
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-9.5) Minnesota Lynx 56¢ 74¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5 Under 53¢ 20¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 384 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 169.5 Jun 18 $10 +$9 +91%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $40 +$25 +62%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 159.5 Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $12 −$2 -16%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $42 +$9 +21%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $69 −$27 -39%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $61 +$10 +17%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $22 −$22 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $18 +$4 +24%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $15 +$3 +17%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $22 +$4 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $66 −$55 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +14%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $140 −$138 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $20 +$4 +19%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $134 +$26 +20%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $98 +$35 +36%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $33 +$12 +37%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $7 −$6 -88%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$1 +17%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $21 −$12 -57%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $146 +$52 +36%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $148 −$2 -1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $116 +$32 +27%
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$10 +48%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $63 +$24 +38%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $17 +$5 +30%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $14 +$4 +27%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $14 +$6 +39%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $30 +$3 +11%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $10 −$3 -25%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $10 +$7 +70%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 Jun 13 $20 +$15 +73%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $10 +$4 +44%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $101 −$100 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $101 +$24 +24%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $30 +$4 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $30 +$13 +44%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 12 $30 +$11 +36%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 12 $30 +$13 +44%
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 12 $30 +$4 +13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $30 +$14 +46%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 +$15 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $49 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 1h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-9.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 56¢ $10 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 169.5 SELL Over 99¢ $19 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $65 2h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 169.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 3h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 159.5 SELL Under 83¢ $10 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $40 4h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 159.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 4h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 51¢ $2 4h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag SELL Team Evictix 48¢ $11 4h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 42¢ $10 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $51 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 82¢ $42 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 52¢ $42 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $69 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $72 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $61 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $22 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $18 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 99¢ $18 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 84¢ $15 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $15 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 71¢ $11 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 71¢ $11 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 70¢ $11 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 13¢ $11 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $66 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $6 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.24 · official $86.24 (match) · 2112 history records