Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:38:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa372…1b3e other 75 markets active 5h ago coverage 199d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 198d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13,317 (-5%) realized −$13,012 · open −$305
Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +51% what you keep after slip
Net edge+51%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate42%39W / 54L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,588per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$19,046now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 199d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% −$8,987
crypto 8% −$16,050
other 2% −$4,513
economics 1% −$558
culture 0% −$447
finance 0% +$13
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% +$5
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+70.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +144.7% +121.4% 24% 19% -17.5%
≤30d 25 +169.3% +143.7% 24% 20% -14.7%
≤90d 38 +107.9% +88.1% 34% 18% -20.8%
all 93 +88.4% +70.4% 42% 26% -36.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +70.4% 26% -36.8%
10% ← realistic here +54.1% 24% -42.9%
15% +39.2% 23% -48.4%
20% +25.6% 19% -53.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +88% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late +159% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
33.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$702 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$19,046
Realized−$13,012
Unrealized−$305
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses39 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)93 / 75
History coverage199d ⚠
Avg bet$3,588
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $19,336 $19,027 −$309 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $19 +$3 (+21%)
Will MUNDO-GB
 win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+448%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +456%
Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31? Jun 15 $867 −$1,017 -117%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will a candidate win outright in Ireland’s first round? Jun 15 $22 −$20 -93%
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30? Jun 15 $1,824 −$2,045 -112%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 14? Jun 15 $2 +$121 +7709%
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 31? Jun 15 $31 −$29 -93%
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025? Jun 15 $23 +$237 +1033%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -16%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 17 2025? Jun 15 $14 +$14 +104%
Will Trump talk to Ahmed Al Shara in November? Jun 15 $8 −$7 -80%
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? Jun 15 $505 −$560 -111%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Jun 15 $137 −$103 -76%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by December 31? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025? Jun 15 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? Jun 15 $241 −$51 -21%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be less than 1.0%? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -96%
Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in November? Jun 15 $11 +$131 +1190%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Jun 15 $223 −$223 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? Jun 15 $239 −$43 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $21,226 +$1,258 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $21 −$10 -48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $26,341 −$2,417 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $552 −$312 -56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $1,941 +$1,379 +71%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $14,105 −$5,236 -37%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 06 $3 $0 +6%
Sharjah ruler Sultan bin Muhammad Al-Qasimi arrested by May 31? May 05 $7 −$2 -26%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $15,305 +$19 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 30 $13,349 −$3,420 -26%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $42 −$40 -95%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 28 $3,007 $0 -0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? Apr 24 $338 −$28 -8%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 21 $7,408 +$235 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? Apr 14 $592 +$13 +2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 14 $194 +$11 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $3,969 +$315 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 29 $44 +$6 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? Jan 25 $225 −$69 -31%
Will Kate Hudson win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 22 $1 +$9 +684%
Will Bernie endorse Dan Osborn for NE-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? Jan 20 $1 +$10 +858%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January? Jan 08 $64 −$6 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $13,606 −$5,995 -44%
Will Trump veto a bill in 2025? Dec 30 $1 +$3 +324%
Will Pope Leo XIV meet with Cristiano Ronaldo in 2025? Dec 30 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $205-$210 in 2025? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? Dec 28 $2,526 −$10,300 -408%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$125 in 2025? Dec 28 $1 +$1 +80%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $85-$90 in 2025? Dec 27 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $13,191 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $45 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $470 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $2,256 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $940 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $25 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $16 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $940 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,128 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $93 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $209 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $19,342 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $7,859 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $376 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $11 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $413 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $14 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,045.85 · official $19,045.85 (match) · 3500 history records