Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:12:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa372…88fd other 162 markets active 2d ago coverage 108d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 108d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$121 (+4%) realized +$121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate43%70W / 92L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day32.2pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$178
14 days+$180
30 days+$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$1
sports 26% +$177
other 24% +$4
politics 6% +$1
culture 3% −$1
finance 2% $0
tech 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +69.4% +53.2% 51% 43% +21.9%
≤30d 38 +67.6% +51.7% 53% 42% +19.6%
≤90d 38 +67.6% +51.7% 53% 42% +19.6%
all 162 +16.6% +5.5% 43% 12% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.5% 12% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here -4.6% 11% -13.0%
15% -13.8% 7% -21.4%
20% -22.3% 7% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses70 / 92
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)162 / 162
History coverage108d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day32.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 162 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $69 −$10 -14%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $38 −$7 -18%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $11 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $17 +$2 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $24 +$20 +82%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $39 −$18 -46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $38 +$18 +48%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $69 −$6 -10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$40 +200%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $19 +$4 +19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $12 +$4 +32%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $27 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$6 -62%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $12 +$10 +83%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $40 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $60 +$20 +33%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $43 +$59 +138%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$50 +488%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$17 +402%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $44 +$10 +24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $4 +$10 +233%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$11 +107%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $6 +$13 +209%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $8 −$1 -16%
Will the US not strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 10 $44 +$2 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? Mar 06 $14 −$1 -6%
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Mar 06 $8 $0 +2%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Mar 06 $34 $0 +0%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? Mar 06 $3 $0 -6%
Jones vs. Gentzsch: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Mar 06 $3 $0 -1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Mar 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Mar 06 $148 −$3 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 06 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 06 $13 $0 +2%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Mar 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Mar 06 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 10¢ $10 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 16¢ $15 43h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 16¢ $2 43h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 16¢ $5 43h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 16¢ $6 44h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 16¢ $16 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 36¢ $33 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 36¢ $3 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $37 46h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 8¢ $8 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 18¢ $18 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 17¢ $4 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 17¢ $13 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 17¢ $0 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 25¢ $12 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $13 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 8¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 8¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 8¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 3¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 17¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 19¢ $19 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 17¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 17¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 18¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 18¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 18¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 18¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 70¢ $35 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records