Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:46:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A3 0xa373…b6dc sports 787 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,578 (+4%) realized +$3,581 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%375W / 410L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$317est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$300
7 days+$236
14 days+$454
30 days+$1,613
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$3,817
other 1% −$332
world 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -23.4% -30.7% 36% 36% +2.2%
≤30d 53 +11.9% +1.2% 58% 58% +13.5%
≤90d 214 +6.3% -3.8% 53% 53% +0.6%
all 785 +0.0% -9.5% 48% 47% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 47% -5.9%
10% -18.2% 47% -14.9%
15% -26.1% 47% -23.1%
20% -33.3% 45% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$95 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized+$3,581
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses375 / 410
Est. fees paid−$317
Open positions2
Markets (closed)785 / 787
History coverage152d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 785 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Hamad Medjedovic 44¢ 44¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Ben Shelton 45¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 180 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $153 −$150 -98%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Fabian Marozsan vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $197 −$195 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Set Handicap: Sonego (-1.5) vs Basilashvili (+1.5) Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $76 −$75 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $545 +$950 +174%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $7 +$13 +182%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $152 +$159 +104%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $177 +$147 +83%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 10 $152 +$111 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $178 −$175 -99%
Set Handicap: Landaluce (-1.5) vs Herbert (+1.5) Jun 09 $101 +$58 +57%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $101 +$77 +76%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $51 +$53 +105%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $152 +$167 +109%
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $101 −$23 -23%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $152 −$150 -98%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 03 $152 +$160 +105%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $152 +$127 +84%
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $101 −$100 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $101 −$100 -99%
Rafael Jodar vs. Pablo Carreno Busta: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $152 +$104 +68%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-2.5) vs Svajda (+2.5) Jun 01 $203 +$189 +93%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Alejandro Tabilo: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $101 +$69 +68%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $101 +$95 +93%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Brandon Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 31 $101 +$58 +58%
Set Handicap: Tabilo (-2.5) vs Kouame (+2.5) May 31 $152 +$107 +70%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $101 −$100 -99%
Set Handicap: Jodar (-2.5) vs Michelsen (+2.5) May 30 $51 +$34 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 30 $51 +$80 +157%
Alex Michelsen vs. Rafael Jodar: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 30 $101 +$75 +74%
Alex de Minaur vs. Jakub Mensik: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 30 $152 +$111 +73%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Roman Andres Burruchaga: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 29 $101 +$63 +62%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $101 +$65 +65%
Zachary Svajda vs. Adam Walton: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 28 $152 +$83 +55%
Acosta vs. Tien: Match O/U 36.5 May 28 $152 +$151 +99%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $102 +$126 +124%
Karen Khachanov vs. Marco Trungelliti: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 27 $152 +$102 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet May 27 $153 +$196 +129%
Alexander Bublik vs. Jan-Lennard Struff: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaume Munar vs Hubert Hurkacz May 25 $94 −$92 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 45¢ $102 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 44¢ $203 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $153 9h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) BUY Marozsan 45¢ $51 22h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) BUY Marozsan 44¢ $51 22h
Fabian Marozsan vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 47¢ $51 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 3d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 64¢ $152 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 3d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 43¢ $25 3d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 63¢ $20 3d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 64¢ $152 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Alex Bolt 42¢ $51 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 54¢ $76 4d
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut BUY Raphael Collignon 64¢ $101 4d
Set Handicap: Sonego (-1.5) vs Basilashvili (+1.5) BUY Basilashvili 63¢ $51 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 58¢ $101 5d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 56¢ $101 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $76 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $101 8d
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 57¢ $152 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 38¢ $25 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $51 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $101 10d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane BUY Nuno Borges 56¢ $101 10d
Set Handicap: Landaluce (-1.5) vs Herbert (+1.5) BUY Herbert 63¢ $101 10d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $51 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 47¢ $152 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 50¢ $152 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.62 · official $296.62 (match) · 1778 history records