Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:10:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A3 0xa378…2b72 crypto 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$91 (+7%) realized +$87 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate48%38W / 41L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$713now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days+$96
14 days+$96
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$99
crypto 15% −$15
sports 9% −$4
weather 1% $0
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +21.5% +9.9% 88% 75% +22.3%
≤30d 8 +21.5% +9.9% 88% 75% +22.3%
≤90d 79 -11.4% -19.9% 48% 34% +1.9%
all 79 -11.4% -19.9% 48% 34% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 34% +1.9%
10% -27.5% 28% -7.9%
15% -34.5% 23% -16.8%
20% -40.9% 20% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$713
Realized+$87
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses38 / 41
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)79 / 84
History coverage88d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $247 $245 −$2 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $144 $147 +$3 (+2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $83 $86 +$3 (+4%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $113 +$11 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $155 +$84 +55%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +12%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 14 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 14 $4 +$6 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 14 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 14 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 14 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 14 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 14 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 14 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 14 $3 +$2 +89%
Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on April 13? Apr 14 $6 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Apr 14 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 13 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 13 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down on April 13? Apr 13 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 13 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 13 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 12 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 12? Apr 12 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 12 $9 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $249 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $145 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $84 19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $35 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $112 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $154 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 47h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 87¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $712.69 · official $712.71 (match) · 239 history records