Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:02:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa37a…bc60 weather 289 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$125 (-1%) realized −$90 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate50%143W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days−$112
14 days−$140
30 days−$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$108
world 21% +$318
weather 17% −$307
crypto 16% −$185
politics 3% +$4
finance 2% −$13
sports 1% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -4.4% -13.5% 32% 16% -14.1%
≤30d 213 +5.4% -4.6% 41% 22% -13.1%
≤90d 284 +4.1% -5.9% 50% 19% -11.8%
all 284 +4.1% -5.9% 50% 19% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 19% -11.8%
10% -14.9% 16% -20.2%
15% -23.1% 14% -27.9%
20% -30.6% 11% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized−$90
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses143 / 141
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)284 / 289
History coverage73d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 87¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-3%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $100 −$19 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $54 −$4 -7%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$27 +262%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $57 +$5 +9%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$19 +124%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$23 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $51 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $44 −$15 -33%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 −$6 -25%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $38 −$1 -4%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $30 +$4 +14%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $313 +$8 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $60 −$57 -94%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $120 −$5 -4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $102 −$10 -9%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$12 +39%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? Jun 15 $120 −$4 -3%
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 30? Jun 15 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $150 −$3 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $50 −$5 -10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $30 −$6 -18%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $37 −$9 -24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $374 +$2 +0%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Jun 13 $30 −$10 -32%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $90 −$6 -7%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +168%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $34 −$28 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 10? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 45m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 61¢ $81 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? SELL No 72¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 52¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 69¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 73¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 74¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 74¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 74¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 74¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 74¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 54¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 54¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 54¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 55¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 55¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 55¢ $13 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $11 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $13 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $17 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $13 18h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 18h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 18h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Her BUY 10¢ $15 18h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $34 45h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 47h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 54¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.60 · official $194.60 (match) · 1425 history records