Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:43:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A3 0xa37d…b5eb other 50 markets active 2d ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3 (+4%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate68%34W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$6
14 days+$3
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$9
sports 34% +$11
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +21.7% +10.1% 77% 77% +10.0%
≤30d 50 +14.9% +3.9% 68% 68% -7.7%
≤90d 50 +14.9% +3.9% 68% 68% -7.7%
all 50 +14.9% +3.9% 68% 68% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 68% -7.7%
10% -6.0% 60% -16.5%
15% -15.1% 56% -24.6%
20% -23.4% 48% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses34 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage14d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +72%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +107%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $1 +$1 +81%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +60%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $1 +$1 +112%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 $0 +16%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $1 +$1 +116%
Belgium to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 27 $1 $0 +23%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +23%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $1 +$1 +56%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $1 +$1 +74%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $1 +$1 +72%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 $0 +17%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 $0 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $6 +$2 +44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +51%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +69%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +66%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +56%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 +$1 +107%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 +$1 +95%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +103%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +137%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +112%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +121%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +51%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +95%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +53%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +84%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +107%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 2d
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 2d
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $1 3d
Belgium to score first vs. New Zealand? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 3d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $1 3d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $1 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $1 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $6 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 9d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records