Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:59:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa382…44de sports 1433 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$107 (+0%) realized +$103 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%1369W / 29L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,086now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% +$6
other 27% +$129
weather 17% −$27
politics 9% +$53
finance 6% −$61
world 5% +$3
tech 4% −$36
culture 2% +$13
economics 1% +$3
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -1.1% -10.5% 97% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 676 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 1392 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 1% -9.3%
all 1398 +0.2% -9.4% 98% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 1% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$22 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$1,086
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1369 / 29
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions35
Markets (closed)1398 / 1433
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 1398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $126 $125 −$0 (-0%)
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? No 98¢ 99¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 97¢ 100¢ $62 $64 +$2 (+3%)
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 96¢ 98¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? No 99¢ 96¢ $63 $61 −$2 (-3%)
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 98¢ 100¢ $57 $58 +$1 (+1%)
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 98¢ 98¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 99¢ 97¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jon Hansen win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? No 97¢ 100¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+3%)
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 98¢ 100¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+2%)
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 99¢ 100¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jack Ellison be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? No 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 98¢ 97¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 97¢ 96¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bill Cassidy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? No 98¢ 100¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 98¢ 100¢ $27 $28 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ben Frasier be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? No 99¢ 95¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 97¢ 97¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Santa Clara County? No 99¢ 98¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 97¢ 100¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+3%)
Will Iván Cepeda win more than 55% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election? No 99¢ 99¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $16 $0 +1%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $43 $0 +1%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $26 $0 +1%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? Jun 21 $32 +$1 +4%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-Jun Jun 20 $26 $0 +1%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $12 $0 +1%
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $26 $0 +2%
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $57 +$1 +1%
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $31 $0 +1%
Will Angus King III win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Jun 19 $51 +$2 +4%
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election Jun 19 $54 +$1 +3%
Will Tanvir Ahmad win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election Jun 19 $32 $0 +2%
Will Heather Doran win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-electio Jun 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Jun 19 $32 $0 +1%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 +3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $63 +$1 +2%
Oston Urunov: 1+ goals Jun 18 $11 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $42 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? Jun 18 $31 +$1 +2%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $26 +$1 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 17? Jun 17 $63 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame Jun 17 $37 +$2 +4%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $12 $0 +4%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $62 +$1 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ollie Watkins be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Ivan Toney be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $32 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $29 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $21 $0 +2%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 17? Jun 17 $43 +$1 +2%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $23 $0 +2%
Cédric Bakambu: 2+ goals Jun 17 $12 $0 +1%
João Neves: 2+ goals Jun 17 $12 $0 +1%
Yoane Wissa: 2+ goals Jun 17 $12 $0 +1%
DR Congo to win the second half? Jun 17 $11 +$1 +5%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $24 +$2 +6%
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $24 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Christoph Baumgartner: 3+ goals Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $49 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $12 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $12 1h
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY No 98¢ $32 1h
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY No 98¢ $32 1h
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY No 98¢ $32 1h
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY Yes 98¢ $31 17h
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY Yes 98¢ $31 17h
Will Dan Goldman be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? BUY No 98¢ $5 17h
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY Yes 98¢ $31 17h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $12 17h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 97¢ $12 18h
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY Yes 98¢ $31 18h
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $11 4d
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $12 4d
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $11 4d
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $16 4d
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $16 4d
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $16 4d
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $16 4d
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $16 4d
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $26 4d
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $26 4d
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $26 4d
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $26 4d
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $31 4d
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $32 4d
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $31 4d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 97¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,085.94 · official $1,085.94 (match) · 3500 history records