Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:30:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa384…0254 sports 756 markets active 1h ago coverage 586d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$36 (-3%) realized −$39 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%328W / 427L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$1
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$23
other 2% −$12
politics 1% +$4
crypto 0% −$5
economics 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 25 -54.5% -58.9% 20% 20% -43.6%
≤90d 231 -44.2% -49.5% 25% 25% -47.5%
all 755 -1.8% -11.1% 43% 43% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 43% -12.1%
10% -19.6% 43% -20.5%
15% -27.4% 43% -28.2%
20% -34.5% 43% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

586d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses328 / 427
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)755 / 756
History coverage586d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 755 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 50¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+100%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 48¢ 34¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Stars vs. Penguins Penguins 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bruins vs. Lightning Bruins 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Sharks vs. Ducks Sharks 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Lightning vs. Senators Lightning 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bruins vs. Panthers Bruins 61¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Avalanche vs. Blues Blues 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Lightning vs. Sabres Lightning 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Capitals vs. Devils Capitals 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bruins vs. Flyers Bruins 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Golden Knights 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ducks vs. Oilers Ducks 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Penguins vs. Senators Senators 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Red Wings vs. Flyers Flyers 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Blues vs. Kings Blues 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Devils vs. Hurricanes Devils 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Kraken Golden Knights 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Capitals vs. Penguins Penguins 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Jets vs. Stars Jets 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Wild vs. Panthers Panthers 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Devils vs. Canadiens Canadiens 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Canucks vs. Wild Canucks 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $3 +$3 +98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $3 +$4 +146%
Penguins vs. Blues May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Rangers vs. Lightning May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Stars vs. Sabres May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Ducks vs. Predators May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Canucks vs. Oilers May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Senators vs. Hurricanes May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Wild vs. Stars May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Wild vs. Stars May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Utah May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Penguins vs. Flyers May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Lightning vs. Canadiens May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Lightning vs. Canadiens May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Flyers vs. Hurricanes May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 28 $4 +$4 +97%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 26 $2 +$3 +129%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 24 $3 +$5 +165%
Golden Knights vs. Utah May 04 $2 +$2 +90%
Sabres vs. Bruins May 04 $2 +$2 +90%
Oilers vs. Ducks May 01 $2 +$2 +114%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 30 $1 +$2 +152%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 30 $2 +$2 +90%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 30 $2 +$3 +140%
Avalanche vs. Kings Apr 28 $2 +$1 +60%
Sabres vs. Bruins Apr 28 $2 +$2 +97%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 25 $1 +$1 +97%
Sabres vs. Bruins Apr 25 $2 +$2 +97%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 23 $1 +$2 +197%
Stars vs. Wild Apr 23 $2 +$2 +119%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 23 $2 +$3 +129%
Avalanche vs. Flames Apr 20 $2 +$1 +72%
Blues vs. Utah Apr 20 $2 +$2 +82%
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) Apr 20 $2 +$2 +90%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 20 $2 +$3 +129%
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets Apr 20 $2 +$3 +138%
Hurricanes vs. Islanders Apr 20 $2 +$3 +144%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 20 $2 +$3 +152%
Avalanche vs. Oilers Apr 14 $2 +$2 +85%
Jets vs. Utah Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Sharks vs. Predators Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $3 1h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $3 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $3 8d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $3 11d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 40¢ $3 12d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $4 19d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 43¢ $2 20d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 43¢ $2 21d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Canadiens 35¢ $2 23d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche BUY Golden Knights 37¢ $3 23d
Hurricanes vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 39¢ $2 38d
Flyers vs. Hurricanes BUY Flyers 31¢ $3 43d
Golden Knights vs. Utah BUY Golden Knights 52¢ $2 44d
Sabres vs. Bruins BUY Sabres 52¢ $2 44d
Lightning vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 50¢ $2 44d
Oilers vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 46¢ $2 45d
Penguins vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 52¢ $2 46d
Canadiens vs. Lightning BUY Canadiens 41¢ $2 46d
Bruins vs. Sabres BUY Bruins 39¢ $1 47d
Lightning vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 48¢ $2 49d
Lightning vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 50¢ $2 50d
Avalanche vs. Kings BUY Avalanche 62¢ $2 50d
Sabres vs. Bruins BUY Sabres 50¢ $2 50d
Penguins vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 53¢ $2 50d
Golden Knights vs. Utah BUY Golden Knights 52¢ $1 51d
Lightning vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 50¢ $1 51d
Sabres vs. Bruins BUY Sabres 50¢ $2 52d
Stars vs. Wild BUY Stars 45¢ $2 53d
Penguins vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 33¢ $1 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.09 · official $8.09 (match) · 1520 history records