Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:23:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A3 0xa386…cb0f sports 338 markets active 6d ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,534 (+9%) realized +$4,534 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%165W / 173L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$399est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$71
14 days+$1,844
30 days−$1,054
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$1,283
other 35% +$2,119
world 1% +$542
crypto 1% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +11.9% +1.3% 67% 67% +0.1%
≤30d 205 -11.8% -20.2% 45% 43% -13.2%
≤90d 338 -6.0% -15.0% 49% 47% -2.2%
all 338 -6.0% -15.0% 49% 47% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 47% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 40% -11.6%
15% -30.5% 29% -20.1%
20% -37.3% 21% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$90 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,534
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses165 / 173
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$399
Open positions0
Markets (closed)338 / 338
History coverage44d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 338 Trades
no open positions (135 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $22 +$27 +119%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $591 +$101 +17%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $85 +$123 +146%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $22 −$21 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $430 +$144 +34%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $469 +$48 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$18 +46%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $131 −$130 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $671 +$577 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $94 +$213 +226%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $46 +$53 +114%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $54 +$53 +97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $44 +$100 +226%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$46 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $673 +$375 +56%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $106 +$18 +17%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $95 −$93 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $39 +$110 +281%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $348 −$347 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $44 −$43 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $104 −$102 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $477 +$520 +109%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $54 −$53 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 12 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $175 −$171 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $47 −$46 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $512 +$517 +101%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $31 +$15 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $109 −$108 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $53 −$52 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $272 −$180 -66%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $999 +$436 +44%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $41 −$13 -30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $40 +$21 +52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $81 −$80 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $87 +$68 +78%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $177 −$174 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $17 +$3 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $12 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $57 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 85¢ $591 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $64 7d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 7d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 8d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $30 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $326 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $38 8d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 30¢ $54 9d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $131 9d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $59 9d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $86 9d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $173 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $671 10d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $46 10d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 11d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $94 11d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $54 11d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 31¢ $95 11d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 62¢ $5 11d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 30¢ $44 11d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 11d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $367 11d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $106 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $185 12d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1089 history records