Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:18:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa389…b46c crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$58 (-12%) realized −$55 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate55%36W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% $0
crypto 34% −$48
politics 19% −$19
sports 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -13.5% -21.7% 69% 46% -8.7%
≤30d 65 -12.6% -21.0% 55% 46% -24.2%
≤90d 65 -12.6% -21.0% 55% 46% -24.2%
all 65 -12.6% -21.0% 55% 46% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 46% -24.2%
10% -28.5% 32% -31.4%
15% -35.4% 28% -38.0%
20% -41.8% 14% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$55
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses36 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)65 / 69
History coverage29d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+16%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $63 +$2 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $14 −$14 -99%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $23 +$4 +19%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $4 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7 +$3 +40%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $37 +$4 +11%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 20 $28 +$8 +29%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +62%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Iván Cepeda win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round o Jun 02 $3 +$3 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 02 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -48%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 02 $10 +$2 +16%
Will voter turnout be 54-57% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 31 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 31 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 31 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Paloma Valencia win between 15% and 20% of votes in the first rou May 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $15 −$14 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 31 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +10%
Will Paloma Valencia win between 10% and 15% of votes in the first rou May 31 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 30 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 30 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 29 $8 −$6 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 29 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 29 $3 −$1 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $28 40m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 74¢ $28 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 91¢ $35 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 42h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 65¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 60¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 90¢ $37 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 95¢ $6 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $36 5d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 9d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 14d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.23 · official $43.23 (match) · 223 history records