Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:38:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa38f…2349 other 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate21%11W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% −$10
other 15% −$5
sports 3% +$11
tech 3% +$3
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% −$4
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -6.8% -15.7% 7% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 42 -3.6% -12.8% 21% 10% -9.3%
all 53 -4.8% -13.8% 21% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 8% -9.7%
10% -22.1% 8% -18.3%
15% -29.6% 8% -26.2%
20% -36.5% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses11 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage596d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $91 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $46 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $47 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $48 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $46 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $9 +$6 +62%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $11 +$7 +70%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $9 +$10 +104%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $6 +$7 +105%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $15 +$1 +10%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 06 $11 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 06 $11 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $21 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $40 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 27 $40 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 09 $38 +$3 +8%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $40 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 01 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $10 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $305 −$3 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $6 28m
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 19h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 27h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 28h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $5 5d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 7d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 22¢ $4 8d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 24d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.73 · official $24.74 (match) · 240 history records