Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

A3 0xa390…c160 other 10 markets active 8h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$4 (-2%) realized −$4 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate62%5W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day2.5pace

Kalshi-fit10%portable

Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)-20.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-12.4%	-20.8%	62%	62%	-15.7%
≤30d	8	-12.4%	-20.8%	62%	62%	-15.7%
≤90d	8	-12.4%	-20.8%	62%	62%	-15.7%
all	8	-12.4%	-20.8%	62%	62%	-15.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-20.8%	62%	-15.7%
10%	-28.3%	50%	-23.7%
15%	-35.3%	38%	-31.1%
20%	-41.6%	25%	-37.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 74% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$18 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.77 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$30

Realized−$4

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses5 / 3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)8 / 10

History coverage4d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day2.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	65¢	66¢	$15	$15	+$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	58¢	56¢	$15	$15	−$0 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$21	+$12	+58%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$5	+$3	+51%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$52	−$52	-100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$1	$0	+34%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$63	+$8	+13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$42	+$19	+44%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$16	7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$16	7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$21	20h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$5	3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$1	3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$1	3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$52	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	85¢	$63	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$42	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.72 · official $29.73 (match) · 18 history records